Population Forecasts, Fiscal Policy, and Risk
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Demographic forecasts and fiscal policy rules
All quantitative evaluations of fiscal sustainability that include the effects of population ageing must utilize demographic forecasts. It is well known that such forecasts are uncertain, and some studies have taken that into account by using stochastic population projections jointly with economic models. We develop this approach further by introducing regular demographic forecast revisions tha...
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How should fiscal policy be conducted in the presence of default risk? We address this question using a sovereign default model with nominal rigidities. An increase in government spending during a recession stimulates economic activity and reduces unemployment. Because the government lacks commitment to future debt repayments, expansionary fiscal policy increases sovereign spreads, making the f...
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As economics has developed, a number of different fiscal principles have been suggested. Perhaps the oldest principle was that the Government should balance its books. This principle was adopted by the 1979 Conservative Government but they delivered a budget in balance or in surplus only in 1988/89 and 1989/90. The same principle has been adopted in the Stability and Growth Pact, albeit with an...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: SSRN Electronic Journal
سال: 2006
ISSN: 1556-5068
DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.924627